Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.Comment: 14 pages, revised version to appear in the Proceedings of the QI2013 (Quantum Interactions) conferenc

An international randomised controlled trial to compare targeted intra-operative radiotherapy (TARGIT) with conventional post-operative radiotherapy after conservative breast surgery for women with early stage breast cancer (The TARGIT-A trial)

BACKGROUND: Based on our laboratory work and clinical trials we hypothesised that radiotherapy after lumpectomy for breast cancer could be restricted to the tumour bed. In collaboration with the industry we developed a new radiotherapy device and a new surgical operation for delivering single-dose radiation to the tumour bed - the tissues at highest risk of local recurrence. We named it TARGeted Intraoperative radioTherapy (TARGIT). From 1998 we confirmed its feasibility and safety in pilot studies. OBJECTIVE: To compare TARGIT within a risk-adapted approach with whole breast external beam radiotherapy over several weeks (EBRT). DESIGN AND SETTING: The TARGIT-A trial was a pragmatic, prospective, international, multicenter, non-inferiority, non-blinded, randomised (1:1 ratio), clinical trial from 33 centres in 11 countries. Originally, randomisation occurred before initial lumpectomy (prepathology) and if allocated TARGIT, the patient received it during the lumpectomy. Subsequently, the postpathology stratum was added, in which randomisation occurred after initial lumpectomy, allowing potentially easier logistics and a more stringent case selection, but needed a reoperation to reopen the wound to give TARGIT as delayed procedure. Risk-adapted approach meant that in the experimental arm, if pre-specified unsuspected adverse factors were found postoperatively after receiving TARGIT, then EBRT was recommended. Pragmatically, this reflected how TARGIT would be practiced in the real world. PARTICIPANTS: Women who were >=45 years of age with unifocal invasive ductal carcinoma preferably <= 3.5cm in size; 3451 patients were recruited between March 2000 and June 2012. OUTCOMES: Primary: absolute difference in local recurrence, with a non-inferiority margin of 2.5%. Secondary: included toxicity, breast cancer specific and non-breast-cancer mortality. RESULTS: Values below are 5-year Kaplan-Meier rates for TARGIT vs. EBRT. There was no statistically significant difference in local recurrence between TARGIT and EBRT. TARGIT was non-inferior to EBRT overall (3·3%(2·1–5·1) vs. 1·3%(0·7–2·5),p=0.04,Pnoninferiority =0.00000012) and in the prepathology stratum(n=2298) when TARGIT was given concurrently with lumpectomy(2·1%(1·1–4·2) vs. 1·1%(0·5–2·5),p=0.31,Pnoninferiority =0.0000000013). With delayed TARGIT postpathology,(n=1153) the between-group difference was larger than 2·5% and non-inferiority was not established for this stratum((5·4%(3·0–9·7) vs. 1·7%(0·6–4·9),p=0.069,Pnoninferiority= 0.06640). The local-recurrence-free survival when TARGIT was given with lumpectomy was 93.9%(95%CI 90.9 – 95.9) vs. EBRT: 92.5%(95%CI 89.7 – 94.6),p=0.35. In a planned subgroup analysis, progesterone (PgR) receptor status was found to be the only predictor of outcome - hormone responsive patients (PgRpositive) had similar 5-year local recurrence with TARGIT during lumpectomy 1.4%(0.5-3.9) vs. EBRT 1.2%(0.5-2.9),p=0.77. Grade 3 or 4 radiotherapy toxicity was significantly reduced with TARGIT. Overall, breast cancer mortality was much the same between groups (2·6%[1·5–4·3] vs. 1·9%[1·1–3·2];p=0·56) but there were significantly fewer non-breast-cancer deaths with TARGIT (1·4% [0·8–2·5] vs 3·5%[2·3–5·2];p=0·0086), attributable to fewer deaths from cardiovascular causes and other cancers, leading to a trend in reduced overall mortality in the TARGIT arm 37 deaths, 3·9%(2·7–5·8) vs. 51 deaths, 5·3%(3·9–7·3),p=0.099). Health economic analyses suggest that TARGIT was statistically significantly less costly than EBRT, produced similar QALYs, had a positive incremental Net Monetary Benefit that was borderline statistically significant from zero, and had a probability of over 90% of being cost-effective. There appears to be little uncertainty in the point estimates, based on deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. If TARGIT were given instead of EBRT in suitable patients, it might potentially reduce costs to the health care providers by £8 million to £9.1 million each year. This does not include environmental, patient and societal costs. LIMITATIONS: The number of local recurrences is small however, the number of events for local-recurrence-free survival is not small (59 vs. 61); Occurrence of only a few events implies that the treatments are effective and any difference is unlikely to be large. The follow up not all 3451 patients is 5 years, although the number required to answer the main trial question (n=585) have more than 5 years follow up. FUTURE WORK: We shall repeat the analyses with longer follow up. Although this may not change the primary result, the larger number of events may confirm the effect on mortality and allow more detailed subgroup analyses. The TARGIT-B trial is testing whether TARGIT-Boost is superior to EBRT boost. CONCLUSION: For patients with breast cancer (women who are 45 years of age and older with hormone sensitive invasive ductal carcinoma that is up to 3.5cm in size), TARGIT concurrent with lumpectomy within a risk-adapted approach is as effective, safer and less expensive alternative to postoperative EBRT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN34086741, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00983684

Association between the c.*229C>T polymorphism of the topoisomerase IIb binding protein 1 (TopBP1) gene and breast cancer

Topoisomerase IIb binding protein 1 (TopBP1) is involved in cell survival, DNA replication, DNA damage repair and cell cycle checkpoint control. The biological function of TopBP1 and its close relation with BRCA1 prompted us to investigate whether alterations in the TopBP1 gene can influence the risk of breast cancer. The aim of this study was to examine the association between five polymorphisms (rs185903567, rs116645643, rs115160714, rs116195487, and rs112843513) located in the 30UTR region of the TopBP1 gene and breast cancer risk as well as allele-specific gene expression. Five hundred thirty-four breast cancer patients and 556 population controls were genotyped for these SNPs. Allele-specific Top- BP1 mRNA and protein expressions were determined by using real time PCR and western blotting methods, respectively. Only one SNP (rs115160714) showed an association with breast cancer. Compared to homozygous common allele carriers, heterozygous and homozygous for the T variant had significantly increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 3.81, 95 % confidence interval: 1.63–8.34, p = 0.001). Mean TopBP1 mRNA and protein expression were higher in the individuals with the CT or TT genotype. There was a significant association between the rs115160714 and tumor grade and stage. Most carriers of minor allele had a high grade (G3) tumors classified as T2-T4N1M0. Our study raises a possibility that a genetic variation of TopBP1 may be implicated in the etiology of breast cancer

A randomised controlled trial of cognitive behavioural treatment for obsessive compulsive disorder in children and adolescents

Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for young people with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) has become the treatment of first choice. However, the literature is largely based on studies emphasising exposure and response prevention. In this study, we report on a randomised controlled trial of CBT for young people carried out in typical outpatient clinic conditions which focused on cognitions. A randomised controlled trial compares 10 sessions of manualised cognitive behavioural treatment with a 12-week waiting list for adolescents and children with OCD. Assessors were blind to treatment allocation. 21 consecutive patients with OCD aged between 9 and 18 years were recruited. The group who received treatment improved more than a comparison group who waited for 3 months. The second group was treated subsequently using the same protocol and made similar gains. In conclusion, CBT can be delivered effectively to young people with OCD in typical outpatient settings

Amygdala Engagement in Response to Subthreshold Presentations of Anxious Face Stimuli in Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Preliminary Insights

Current theoretical models of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) have proposed that impairments in the processing of social/emotional information may be linked to amygdala dysfunction. However, the extent to which amygdala functions are compromised in ASD has become a topic of debate in recent years. In a jittered functional magnetic resonance imaging study, sub-threshold presentations of anxious faces permitted an examination of amygdala recruitment in 12 high functioning adult males with ASD and 12 matched controls. We found heightened neural activation of the amygdala in both high functioning adults with ASD and matched controls. Neither the intensity nor the time-course of amygdala activation differed between the groups. However, the adults with ASD showed significantly lower levels of fusiform activation during the trials compared to controls. Our findings suggest that in ASD, the transmission of socially salient information along sub-cortical pathways is intact: and yet the signaling of this information to structures downstream may be impoverished, and the pathways that facilitate subsequent processing deficient

Temporal trends in mode, site and stage of presentation with the introduction of colorectal cancer screening: a decade of experience from the West of Scotland

background:  Population colorectal cancer screening programmes have been introduced to reduce cancer-specific mortality through the detection of early-stage disease. The present study aimed to examine the impact of screening introduction in the West of Scotland. methods:  Data on all patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2003 and December 2012 were extracted from a prospectively maintained regional audit database. Changes in mode, site and stage of presentation before, during and after screening introduction were examined. results:  In a population of 2.4 million, over a 10-year period, 14 487 incident cases of colorectal cancer were noted. Of these, 7827 (54%) were males and 7727 (53%) were socioeconomically deprived. In the postscreening era, 18% were diagnosed via the screening programme. There was a reduction in both emergency presentation (20% prescreening vs 13% postscreening, P0.001) and the proportion of rectal cancers (34% prescreening vs 31% pos-screening, P0.001) over the timeframe. Within non-metastatic disease, an increase in the proportion of stage I tumours at diagnosis was noted (17% prescreening vs 28% postscreening, P0.001). conclusions:  Within non-metastatic disease, a shift towards earlier stage at diagnosis has accompanied the introduction of a national screening programme. Such a change should lead to improved outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

An ongoing case-control study to evaluate the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme

© 2014 Massat et al.; licensee BioMed Central. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated

Description of the BRIGHTLIGHT cohort: the evaluation of teenage and young adult cancer services in England

Objective International recognition of the unique needs of young people with cancer is growing. Many countries have developed specialist age-appropriate cancer services believing them to be of value. In England, 13 specialist principal treatment centres (PTCs) deliver cancer care to young people. Despite this expansion of specialist care, systematic investigation of associated outcomes and costs has, to date, been lacking. The aim of this paper is to describe recruitment and baseline characteristics of the BRIGHTLIGHT cohort and the development of the bespoke measures of levels of care and disease severity, which will inform the evaluation of cancer services in England. Design Prospective, longitudinal, observational study. Setting Ninety-seven National Health Service hospitals in England. Participants A total of 1114 participants were recruited and diagnosed between July 2012 and December 2014: 55% (n=618) were men, mean age was 20.1 years (SD=3.3), most (86%) were white and most common diagnoses were lymphoma (31%), germ cell tumour (19%) and leukaemia (13%). Results At diagnosis, median quality of life score was significantly lower than a published control threshold (69.7 points); 40% had borderline to severe anxiety, and 21% had borderline to severe depression. There was minimal variation in other patient-reported outcomes according to age, diagnosis or severity of illness. Survival was lower in the cohort than for young people diagnosed during the same period who were not recruited (cumulative survival probability 4 years after diagnosis: 88% vs 92%). Conclusions Data collection was completed in March 2018. Longitudinal comparisons will determine outcomes and costs associated with access/exposure to PTCs. Findings will inform international intervention and policy initiatives to improve outcomes for young people with cancer